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APACOF.OUT
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[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run 1 Program COF 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 1
[]
[] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 32404
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS
Title of run: 1
File of DATED series: 1.rwl
CONTENTS:
Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series
Part 2: Histogram of time spans
Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year
Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series
Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master
Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers
Part 7: Descriptive statistics
RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE
1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering
32 years
2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years
3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing
4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing
5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative)
Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281
6 Master dating series saved N
7 Ring measurements listed N
8 Parts printed 1234567
9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y)
Time span of Master dating series is 1692 to 2022 331 years
Continuous time span is 1692 to 2022 331 years
Portion with two or more series is 1700 to 2022 323 years
****************************************
*C* Number of dated series 18 *C*
*O* Master series 1692 2022 331 yrs *O*
*F* Total rings in all series 4747 *F*
*E* Total dated rings checked 4739 *E*
*C* Series intercorrelation .589 *C*
*H* Average mean sensitivity .235 *H*
*A* Segments, possible problems 4 *A*
*** Mean length of series 263.7 ***
****************************************
ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year)
No ring measurements of zero value
PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ----
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . APA01 1 1879 2022 144
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================> . APA02 2 1735 2022 288
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===============> . APA03 3 1863 2022 160
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==============================> . APA04 4 1715 2022 308
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=========================> . APA05 5 1763 2022 260
. . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============================> . APA06 6 1708 2022 315
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==============================> . APA07 7 1714 2022 309
. . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============================> . APA08 8 1700 2022 323
. . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================> . APA09 9 1700 2017 318
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================> . APA10 10 1723 2022 300
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . APA11 11 1752 2022 271
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=========================> . APA12 12 1762 2022 261
. . . . . . . . . . . . . <================================> . APA13 13 1692 2022 331
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============> . APA14 14 1880 2022 143
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========> . APA16 15 1922 2022 101
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==============================> . APA17 16 1719 2022 304
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================> . APA18 17 1735 2022 288
. . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============================> . APA19 18 1700 2022 323
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
PART 3: Master Dating Series: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab
------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------
1700 -1.162 4 1750 .207 11 1800 .136 14 1850 1.432 14 1900 -1.377 17
1701 -1.066 4 1751 -1.936 11 1801 .407 14 1851 1.248 14 1901 1.079 17
1702 -.446 4 1752 -.525 12 1802 .624 14 1852 1.073 14 1902 .180 17
1703 -.348 4 1753 .365 12 1803 .140 14 1853 .978 14 1903 -2.058 17
1704 -.045 4 1754 1.805 12 1804 .933 14 1854 1.075 14 1904 .971 17
1705 .596 4 1755 1.060 12 1805 1.790 14 1855 .390 14 1905 .771 17
1706 1.775 4 1756 .775 12 1806 -2.238 14 1856 -.216 14 1906 1.459 17
1707 1.821 4 1757 1.414 12 1807 .581 14 1857 -1.235 14 1907 .910 17
1708 -.053 5 1758 .736 12 1808 1.470 14 1858 .233 14 1908 .150 17
1709 -1.178 5 1759 .167 12 1809 1.466 14 1859 .617 14 1909 -.109 17
1710 1.312 5 1760 .117 12 1810 -.671 14 1860 -.183 14 1910 -2.122 17
1711 2.647 5 1761 .817 12 1811 -.561 14 1861 .581 14 1911 -1.734 17
1712 .390 5 1762 .640 13 1812 -.166 14 1862 -.324 14 1912 -.393 17
1713 -.763 5 1763 .473 14 1813 -1.643 14 1863 -1.102 15 1913 -1.041 17
1714 -.283 6 1764 -.933 14 1814 .143 14 1864 1.178 15 1914 .358 17
1715 1.370 7 1765 .386 14 1815 -.945 14 1865 -.642 15 1915 .849 17
1716 -.388 7 1766 .002 14 1816 -.964 14 1866 -1.618 15 1916 .545 17
1717 -.717 7 1767 -.209 14 1817 -1.413 14 1867 -.532 15 1917 -.467 17
1718 .010 7 1768 .146 14 1818 .489 14 1868 .226 15 1918 -1.543 17
1719 -1.965 8 1769 -1.423 14 1819 .870 14 1869 .943 15 1919 -.467 17
1720 -.454 8 1770 -.716 14 1820 -1.167 14 1870 .337 15 1920 -.190 17
1721 -.683 8 1771 -.895 14 1821 -1.454 14 1871 -.460 15 1921 .037 17
1722 -.873 8 1772 -.778 14 1822 -.666 14 1872 -.973 15 1922 .548 18
1723 -.603 9 1773 -2.189 14 1823 .031 14 1873 .924 15 1923 .848 18
1724 -.220 9 1774 .559 14 1824 .281 14 1874 -2.099 15 1924 1.611 18
1725 .475 9 1775 -.140 14 1825 -.868 14 1875 .288 15 1925 1.880 18
1726 .518 9 1776 -1.217 14 1826 1.751 14 1876 1.184 15 1926 -.565 18
1727 -.449 9 1777 .302 14 1827 1.094 14 1877 .971 15 1927 .790 18
1728 -1.296 9 1778 .531 14 1828 -.860 14 1878 -.144 15 1928 -.764 18
1729 .809 9 1779 .424 14 1829 1.335 14 1879 -.310 16 1929 -2.170 18
1730 1.923 9 1780 1.924 14 1830 .848 14 1880 -1.291 17 1930 .281 18
1731 .786 9 1781 .596 14 1831 1.504 14 1881 -1.237 17 1931 .156 18
1732 -.710 9 1782 .877 14 1832 .985 14 1882 -.276 17 1932 .792 18
1733 -.103 9 1783 .697 14 1833 1.217 14 1883 .238 17 1933 -.398 18
1734 -2.305 9 1784 .670 14 1834 .413 14 1884 .088 17 1934 .796 18
1735 -.103 11 1785 1.079 14 1835 .167 14 1885 1.384 17 1935 .330 18
1736 .772 11 1786 .491 14 1836 -.425 14 1886 1.289 17 1936 -.412 18
1737 -.488 11 1787 -.720 14 1837 -2.220 14 1887 .139 17 1937 1.569 18
1738 1.529 11 1788 .350 14 1838 -1.081 14 1888 -.846 17 1938 .466 18
1739 2.237 11 1789 -.380 14 1839 -1.512 14 1889 -.533 17 1939 -1.348 18
1740 .808 11 1790 -2.350 14 1840 .715 14 1890 1.241 17 1940 -.185 18
1741 -.633 11 1791 -.848 14 1841 -.667 14 1891 1.383 17 1941 .638 18
1692 1.237 1 1742 -.348 11 1792 -.558 14 1842 -.165 14 1892 -1.970 17 1942 -.879 18
1693 2.012 1 1743 -.724 11 1793 -.698 14 1843 -1.029 14 1893 -.673 17 1943 .559 18
1694 -.132 1 1744 -.548 11 1794 -.839 14 1844 -1.378 14 1894 .563 17 1944 -.077 18
1695 -.005 1 1745 -1.195 11 1795 -.067 14 1845 .680 14 1895 .101 17 1945 -.807 18
1696 -2.054 1 1746 .318 11 1796 -.010 14 1846 -.673 14 1896 .475 17 1946 -1.461 18
1697 -2.312 1 1747 -.115 11 1797 .327 14 1847 -.687 14 1897 -.379 17 1947 .029 18
1698 -.656 1 1748 -.980 11 1798 -.292 14 1848 -1.475 14 1898 1.301 17 1948 .743 18
1699 .017 1 1749 .018 11 1799 1.811 14 1849 1.086 14 1899 .211 17 1949 .408 18
PART 3: Master Dating Series: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab
------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------
1950 .573 18 2000 .804 18
1951 -.931 18 2001 .486 18
1952 -.204 18 2002 -.885 18
1953 -.376 18 2003 -.034 18
1954 1.843 18 2004 1.140 18
1955 .402 18 2005 -.024 18
1956 -.222 18 2006 .595 18
1957 1.648 18 2007 -.120 18
1958 .185 18 2008 1.177 18
1959 .273 18 2009 .612 18
1960 1.191 18 2010 1.163 18
1961 -1.599 18 2011 1.030 18
1962 -1.437 18 2012 -.440 18
1963 -2.007 18 2013 -.464 18
1964 1.636 18 2014 -.149 18
1965 -.242 18 2015 -.774 18
1966 .209 18 2016 .197 18
1967 -.197 18 2017 1.075 18
1968 -.783 18 2018 -.443 17
1969 -1.502 18 2019 -1.942 17
1970 .736 18 2020 -.452 17
1971 -.527 18 2021 -.064 17
1972 .163 18 2022 .622 17
1973 1.147 18
1974 -.190 18
1975 .229 18
1976 .066 18
1977 -.124 18
1978 -.504 18
1979 1.908 18
1980 .647 18
1981 .859 18
1982 .445 18
1983 1.519 18
1984 .804 18
1985 .855 18
1986 -1.930 18
1987 -1.057 18
1988 -.413 18
1989 .765 18
1990 .618 18
1991 -.646 18
1992 -2.032 18
1993 -1.529 18
1994 -1.073 18
1995 -.698 18
1996 -1.630 18
1997 .195 18
1998 .166 18
1999 .199 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value
1700-e 1750------A 1800-----A 1850----------F 1900-f 1950-------B 2000--------C
1701-d 1751h 1801------B 1851---------E 1901---------D 1951-d 2001-------B
1702---b 1752---b 1802-------B 1852---------D 1902------A 1952----a 2002--d
1703---a 1753------A 1803-----A 1853---------D 1903h 1953---b 2003-----@
1704-----@ 1754----------G 1804--------D 1854---------D 1904---------D 1954----------G 2004---------E
1705-------B 1755---------D 1805----------G 1855------B 1905--------C 1955------B 2005-----@
1706----------G 1756--------C 1806i 1856----a 1906----------F 1956----a 2006-------B
1707----------G 1757----------F 1807-------B 1857-e 1907--------D 1957----------G 2007----@
1708-----@ 1758--------C 1808----------F 1858------A 1908-----A 1958------A 2008---------E
1709-e 1759------A 1809----------F 1859-------B 1909----@ 1959------A 2009-------B
1710---------E 1760-----@ 1810--c 1860----a 1910h 1960---------E 2010---------E
1711----------K 1761--------C 1811---b 1861-------B 1911g 1961f 2011---------D
1712------B 1762-------C 1812----a 1862----a 1912---b 1962-f 2012---b
1713--c 1763-------B 1813g 1863-d 1913-d 1963h 2013---b
1714----a 1764-d 1814-----A 1864---------E 1914------A 1964----------G 2014----a
1715---------E 1765------B 1815-d 1865--c 1915--------C 1965----a 2015--c
1716---b 1766-----@ 1816-d 1866f 1916-------B 1966------A 2016------A
1717--c 1767----a 1817-f 1867---b 1917---b 1967----a 2017---------D
1718-----@ 1768-----A 1818-------B 1868------A 1918f 1968--c 2018---b
1719h 1769-f 1819--------C 1869--------D 1919---b 1969-f 2019h
1720---b 1770--c 1820-e 1870------A 1920----a 1970--------C 2020---b
1721--c 1771--d 1821-f 1871---b 1921-----@ 1971---b 2021-----@
1722--c 1772--c 1822--c 1872-d 1922-------B 1972------A 2022-------B
1723--b 1773i 1823-----@ 1873--------D 1923--------C 1973---------E
1724----a 1774-------B 1824------A 1874h 1924----------F 1974----a
1725-------B 1775----a 1825--c 1875------A 1925----------H 1975------A
1726-------B 1776-e 1826----------G 1876---------E 1926---b 1976-----@
1727---b 1777------A 1827---------D 1877---------D 1927--------C 1977----@
1728-e 1778-------B 1828--c 1878----a 1928--c 1978---b
1729--------C 1779-------B 1829---------E 1879----a 1929i 1979----------H
1730----------H 1780----------H 1830--------C 1880-e 1930------A 1980-------C
1731--------C 1781-------B 1831----------F 1881-e 1931------A 1981--------C
1732--c 1782--------D 1832---------D 1882----a 1932--------C 1982-------B
1733----@ 1783--------C 1833---------E 1883------A 1933---b 1983----------F
1734i 1784-------C 1834------B 1884-----@ 1934--------C 1984--------C
1735----@ 1785---------D 1835------A 1885----------F 1935------A 1985--------C
1736--------C 1786-------B 1836---b 1886---------E 1936---b 1986h
1737---b 1787--c 1837i 1887-----A 1937----------F 1987-d
1738----------F 1788------A 1838-d 1888--c 1938-------B 1988---b
1739----------I 1789---b 1839-f 1889---b 1939-e 1989--------C
1740--------C 1790i 1840--------C 1890---------E 1940----a 1990-------B
1741--c 1791--c 1841--c 1891----------F 1941-------C 1991--c
1692---------E 1742---a 1792---b 1842----a 1892h 1942--d 1992h
1693----------H 1743--c 1793--c 1843-d 1893--c 1943-------B 1993f
1694----a 1744---b 1794--c 1844-f 1894-------B 1944-----@ 1994-d
1695-----@ 1745-e 1795-----@ 1845--------C 1895-----@ 1945--c 1995--c
1696h 1746------A 1796-----@ 1846--c 1896-------B 1946-f 1996g
1697i 1747----@ 1797------A 1847--c 1897---b 1947-----@ 1997------A
1698--c 1748-d 1798----a 1848-f 1898---------E 1948--------C 1998------A
1699-----@ 1749-----@ 1799----------G 1849---------D 1899------A 1949------B 1999------A
PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years
Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position
Seq Series Time_span 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975
1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024
--- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
1 APA01 1879 2022 .60 .58 .67 .75 .69
2 APA02 1735 2022 .55 .59 .66 .83 .71 .58 .69 .69 .61 .57 .60
3 APA03 1863 2022 .31A .40 .64 .62 .61 .64
4 APA04 1715 2022 .63 .66 .55 .65 .55 .57 .66 .59 .65 .57 .48 .54
5 APA05 1763 2022 .60 .64 .83 .49 .39 .66 .60 .59 .54 .35
6 APA06 1708 2022 .77 .62 .58 .48 .46 .65 .76 .81 .64 .67 .72 .61
7 APA07 1714 2022 .76 .78 .75 .73 .58 .48 .56 .68 .62 .57 .62 .65
8 APA08 1700 2022 .78 .78 .76 .65 .68 .79 .77 .78 .79 .68 .59 .41
9 APA09 1700 2017 .51 .66 .50 .53 .64 .56 .42 .48 .62 .61 .50 .25A
10 APA10 1723 2022 .45 .49 .53 .68 .74 .67 .69 .73 .57 .57 .59 .57
11 APA11 1752 2022 .62 .77 .81 .70 .66 .69 .67 .75 .67 .42
12 APA12 1762 2022 .49 .45 .55 .71 .68 .64 .60 .52 .46 .46
13 APA13 1692 2022 .61 .52 .55 .65 .67 .66 .62 .69 .80 .80 .82 .67
14 APA14 1880 2022 .58 .63 .73 .67 .44
15 APA16 1922 2022 .50 .47 .60 .56
16 APA17 1719 2022 .45 .49 .50 .61 .59 .57 .50 .37 .32A .50 .54 .50
17 APA18 1735 2022 .61 .69 .75 .76 .72 .64 .67 .53 .43 .40 .39
18 APA19 1700 2022 .42 .33 .18A .36 .59 .53 .54 .67 .63 .69 .74 .71
Av segment correlation .60 .59 .56 .62 .66 .63 .59 .63 .62 .61 .60 .53
PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear:
[A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline,
at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated
[B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series
Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value
[C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series
[D] Absent rings (zero values)
[E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year
====================================================================================================================================
APA01 1879 to 2022 144 years Series 1
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .646) is:
Lower 1947< -.016 1894< -.012 1907< -.011 1919< -.010 1897> -.010 1970< -.007 Higher 1892 .017 1961 .010
====================================================================================================================================
APA02 1735 to 2022 288 years Series 2
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .636) is:
Lower 1986> -.012 1961> -.011 1795< -.011 1852< -.009 1876< -.009 1759< -.008 Higher 1837 .007 1910 .006
====================================================================================================================================
APA03 1863 to 2022 160 years Series 3
[A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
--------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1863 1912 0 .03 .18 .13 .05 -.04 -.15 -.08 .26 .00 -.20 .31* .04 -.29 -.11 .04 .16 -.14 -.06 .02 .00 -.09
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .507) is:
Lower 1892> -.029 1863> -.019 1869< -.018 1877< -.011 1872> -.011 1969> -.009 Higher 1874 .023 1961 .019
1863 to 1912 segment:
Lower 1892> -.062 1869< -.050 1863> -.045 1877< -.031 1872> -.026 1883< -.023 Higher 1874 .095 1903 .042
[E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1863 +3.5 SD; 1892 +3.0 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA04 1715 to 2022 308 years Series 4
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .590) is:
Lower 1951< -.015 1837> -.011 1842< -.007 2006< -.006 1915< -.006 1990< -.006 Higher 1806 .014 1874 .010
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1837 +3.2 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA05 1763 to 2022 260 years Series 5
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .554) is:
Lower 1871< -.028 1872> -.015 1776< -.012 2011< -.007 1968> -.006 1995> -.005 Higher 1903 .010 1892 .009
[C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations:
1871 1872 5.5 SD
[E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1871 -5.6 SD; 1872 +3.7 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA06 1708 to 2022 315 years Series 6
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .630) is:
Lower 1813> -.012 1806> -.011 1769> -.010 1946> -.009 1709> -.008 1817< -.007 Higher 1892 .010 1986 .007
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1769 +3.2 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA07 1714 to 2022 309 years Series 7
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .637) is:
Lower 1878< -.023 1827< -.018 1837> -.011 1851< -.007 1948< -.007 1741< -.006 Higher 1892 .011 1734 .008
[E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1848 -4.7 SD; 1878 -5.5 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA08 1700 to 2022 323 years Series 8
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .685) is:
Lower 2019> -.013 1813> -.008 1865> -.005 1940< -.004 1961> -.004 1988< -.004 Higher 1874 .006 1734 .006
====================================================================================================================================
APA09 1700 to 2017 318 years Series 9
[A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
--------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1968 2017 0 -.16 -.06 .17 -.01 .02 -.14 -.06 -.14 .09 .24 .25* .00 .15 .01 .08 .22 - - - - -
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .492) is:
Lower 1700> -.012 2000< -.009 2016< -.008 1892> -.007 2002> -.007 1989< -.007 Higher 1986 .010 1910 .010
1968 to 2017 segment:
Lower 2000< -.046 2002> -.042 2016< -.036 1989< -.036 1993> -.025 2005> -.025 Higher 1986 .110 1969 .053
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1700 +3.3 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA10 1723 to 2022 300 years Series 10
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .604) is:
Lower 1729< -.008 1730< -.007 1992> -.007 1776> -.006 1789> -.006 1934< -.005 Higher 1806 .018 1892 .012
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1996 -5.0 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA11 1752 to 2022 271 years Series 11
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .663) is:
Lower 1993> -.009 1874> -.008 2016> -.008 1815> -.007 2017< -.007 2003< -.006 Higher 1806 .017 1892 .012
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
2016 +4.3 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA12 1762 to 2022 261 years Series 12
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .532) is:
Lower 1813< -.027 1962> -.011 1939> -.010 1787> -.009 1961> -.006 1764> -.006 Higher 1874 .014 1806 .010
[C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations:
1812 1813 -4.4 SD 1813 1814 4.2 SD
[E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1813 -7.9 SD; 1939 +3.1 SD; 1962 +3.7 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA13 1692 to 2022 331 years Series 13
[*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1692 to 1699 -- not matched by another series
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .667) is:
Lower 1889< -.012 1751> -.011 1734> -.008 1720< -.004 1896< -.004 1863> -.004 Higher 1892 .010 1874 .008
====================================================================================================================================
APA14 1880 to 2022 143 years Series 14
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .565) is:
Lower 2004< -.045 1921< -.014 1899< -.010 1992> -.010 2007< -.009 1995> -.008 Higher 1986 .024 1929 .014
====================================================================================================================================
APA16 1922 to 2022 101 years Series 15
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .513) is:
Lower 1963> -.036 2019> -.029 1939> -.022 1946< -.020 1993> -.017 1942> -.012 Higher 1961 .038 1992 .016
[E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1940 +3.0 SD; 1963 +3.5 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA17 1719 to 2022 304 years Series 16
[A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
--------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1900 1949 0 .25 -.07 .26 .08 -.04 -.08 -.23 .13 -.16 -.22 .32*-.13 .00 .21 .00 .01 .10 .15 .00 .08 .08
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .504) is:
Lower 1872< -.012 1813> -.011 1757< -.010 1910> -.009 1880> -.008 1857> -.006 Higher 1751 .009 1806 .009
1900 to 1949 segment:
Lower 1910> -.048 1924< -.028 1918> -.024 1929> -.020 1925< -.018 1946> -.017 Higher 1939 .040 1904 .029
[E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1813 +3.2 SD; 1872 -5.5 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA18 1735 to 2022 288 years Series 17
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .581) is:
Lower 1995< -.012 1946> -.011 1813> -.010 1996> -.009 1969> -.008 1993> -.008 Higher 1806 .017 1874 .012
[C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations:
1995 1996 4.2 SD
[E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1813 +3.1 SD; 1863 -4.7 SD; 1939 -4.5 SD
====================================================================================================================================
APA19 1700 to 2022 323 years Series 18
[A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
--------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1750 1799 0 -.32 -.02 .01 .04 .05 .02 .04 .16 .14 -.01 .18* .07 .16 -.16 .07 .12 .02 -.07 -.07 -.15 .06
[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .521) is:
Lower 1773> -.013 1707< -.009 1741> -.008 1746< -.008 1785< -.007 1771< -.007 Higher 1986 .012 1992 .007
1750 to 1799 segment:
Lower 1773> -.073 1785< -.036 1778< -.021 1789> -.021 1776> -.016 1759< -.012 Higher 1769 .040 1774 .023
[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year
1773 +4.3 SD
====================================================================================================================================
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 1 11:14 Mon 18 Sep 2023 Page 7
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
1 APA01 1879 2022 144 5 0 .646 .95 2.37 .371 .779 .201 2.72 .391 .003 1
2 APA02 1735 2022 288 11 0 .636 .59 1.27 .240 .797 .215 2.60 .414 -.009 1
3 APA03 1863 2022 160 6 1 .507 .61 1.56 .294 .772 .247 2.72 .397 -.031 2
4 APA04 1715 2022 308 12 0 .590 .55 1.42 .346 .924 .209 2.60 .349 .012 1
5 APA05 1763 2022 260 10 0 .554 .40 1.19 .210 .821 .251 2.60 .375 -.049 1
6 APA06 1708 2022 315 12 0 .630 .46 1.50 .291 .911 .207 2.64 .390 -.005 1
7 APA07 1714 2022 309 12 0 .637 .44 1.52 .303 .875 .291 2.57 .384 .006 1
8 APA08 1700 2022 323 12 0 .685 .64 2.59 .356 .864 .208 2.64 .388 .008 1
9 APA09 1700 2017 318 12 1 .492 .67 2.27 .414 .881 .247 2.73 .427 .004 1
10 APA10 1723 2022 300 12 0 .604 .49 1.40 .243 .857 .222 2.58 .327 -.032 1
11 APA11 1752 2022 271 10 0 .663 .38 1.51 .213 .885 .215 2.83 .349 .010 1
12 APA12 1762 2022 261 10 0 .532 .51 1.53 .237 .841 .224 2.49 .279 -.032 1
13 APA13 1692 2022 331 12 0 .667 .45 1.38 .216 .742 .270 2.66 .381 -.018 1
14 APA14 1880 2022 143 5 0 .565 .65 2.30 .539 .939 .311 2.68 .575 -.020 1
15 APA16 1922 2022 101 4 0 .513 1.08 1.92 .409 .783 .219 2.58 .379 -.009 1
16 APA17 1719 2022 304 12 1 .504 .35 1.33 .258 .915 .254 2.71 .387 .004 1
17 APA18 1735 2022 288 11 0 .581 .53 1.95 .373 .893 .267 2.54 .386 -.025 1
18 APA19 1700 2022 323 12 1 .521 .52 1.65 .287 .869 .186 2.66 .398 -.037 2
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
Total or mean: 4747 180 4 .589 .53 2.59 .300 .858 .235 2.83 .383 -.012
- = [ COFECHA 1 COF ] = -