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Titanic_Survival_Exploration.html
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head><meta charset="utf-8" />
<title>Titanic_Survival_Exploration</title>
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<h1 id="Machine-Learning-Engineer-Nanodegree">Machine Learning Engineer Nanodegree<a class="anchor-link" href="#Machine-Learning-Engineer-Nanodegree">¶</a></h1><h2 id="Introduction-and-Foundations">Introduction and Foundations<a class="anchor-link" href="#Introduction-and-Foundations">¶</a></h2><h2 id="Project-0:-Titanic-Survival-Exploration">Project 0: Titanic Survival Exploration<a class="anchor-link" href="#Project-0:-Titanic-Survival-Exploration">¶</a></h2><p>In 1912, the ship RMS Titanic struck an iceberg on its maiden voyage and sank, resulting in the deaths of most of its passengers and crew. In this introductory project, we will explore a subset of the RMS Titanic passenger manifest to determine which features best predict whether someone survived or did not survive. To complete this project, you will need to implement several conditional predictions and answer the questions below. Your project submission will be evaluated based on the completion of the code and your responses to the questions.</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Tip:</strong> Quoted sections like this will provide helpful instructions on how to navigate and use an iPython notebook.</p>
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<h1 id="Getting-Started">Getting Started<a class="anchor-link" href="#Getting-Started">¶</a></h1><p>To begin working with the RMS Titanic passenger data, we'll first need to <code>import</code> the functionality we need, and load our data into a <code>pandas</code> DataFrame.<br>
Run the code cell below to load our data and display the first few entries (passengers) for examination using the <code>.head()</code> function.</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Tip:</strong> You can run a code cell by clicking on the cell and using the keyboard shortcut <strong>Shift + Enter</strong> or <strong>Shift + Return</strong>. Alternatively, a code cell can be executed using the <strong>Play</strong> button in the hotbar after selecting it. Markdown cells (text cells like this one) can be edited by double-clicking, and saved using these same shortcuts. <a href="http://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/syntax">Markdown</a> allows you to write easy-to-read plain text that can be converted to HTML.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">numpy</span> <span class="kn">as</span> <span class="nn">np</span>
<span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">pandas</span> <span class="kn">as</span> <span class="nn">pd</span>
<span class="c1"># RMS Titanic data visualization code </span>
<span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">titanic_visualizations</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">survival_stats</span>
<span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">IPython.display</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">display</span>
<span class="o">%</span><span class="k">matplotlib</span> inline
<span class="c1"># Load the dataset</span>
<span class="n">in_file</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="s1">'titanic_data.csv'</span>
<span class="n">full_data</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">read_csv</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">in_file</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Print the first few entries of the RMS Titanic data</span>
<span class="n">display</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">full_data</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">head</span><span class="p">())</span>
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<thead>
<tr style="text-align: right;">
<th></th>
<th>PassengerId</th>
<th>Survived</th>
<th>Pclass</th>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Sex</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>SibSp</th>
<th>Parch</th>
<th>Ticket</th>
<th>Fare</th>
<th>Cabin</th>
<th>Embarked</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>0</th>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>
<td>male</td>
<td>22.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>A/5 21171</td>
<td>7.2500</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>1</th>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>38.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>PC 17599</td>
<td>71.2833</td>
<td>C85</td>
<td>C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>2</th>
<td>3</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>26.0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>
<td>7.9250</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>3</th>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>113803</td>
<td>53.1000</td>
<td>C123</td>
<td>S</td>
</tr>
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<th>4</th>
<td>5</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>
<td>male</td>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>373450</td>
<td>8.0500</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
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<p>From a sample of the RMS Titanic data, we can see the various features present for each passenger on the ship:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Survived</strong>: Outcome of survival (0 = No; 1 = Yes)</li>
<li><strong>Pclass</strong>: Socio-economic class (1 = Upper class; 2 = Middle class; 3 = Lower class)</li>
<li><strong>Name</strong>: Name of passenger</li>
<li><strong>Sex</strong>: Sex of the passenger</li>
<li><strong>Age</strong>: Age of the passenger (Some entries contain <code>NaN</code>)</li>
<li><strong>SibSp</strong>: Number of siblings and spouses of the passenger aboard</li>
<li><strong>Parch</strong>: Number of parents and children of the passenger aboard</li>
<li><strong>Ticket</strong>: Ticket number of the passenger</li>
<li><strong>Fare</strong>: Fare paid by the passenger</li>
<li><strong>Cabin</strong> Cabin number of the passenger (Some entries contain <code>NaN</code>)</li>
<li><strong>Embarked</strong>: Port of embarkation of the passenger (C = Cherbourg; Q = Queenstown; S = Southampton)</li>
</ul>
<p>Since we're interested in the outcome of survival for each passenger or crew member, we can remove the <strong>Survived</strong> feature from this dataset and store it as its own separate variable <code>outcomes</code>. We will use these outcomes as our prediction targets.<br>
Run the code cell below to remove <strong>Survived</strong> as a feature of the dataset and store it in <code>outcomes</code>.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="c1"># Store the 'Survived' feature in a new variable and remove it from the dataset</span>
<span class="n">outcomes</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">full_data</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="s1">'Survived'</span><span class="p">]</span>
<span class="n">data</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">full_data</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">drop</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'Survived'</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">axis</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="mi">1</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Show the new dataset with 'Survived' removed</span>
<span class="n">display</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">head</span><span class="p">())</span>
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<thead>
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<th></th>
<th>PassengerId</th>
<th>Pclass</th>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Sex</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>SibSp</th>
<th>Parch</th>
<th>Ticket</th>
<th>Fare</th>
<th>Cabin</th>
<th>Embarked</th>
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<th>0</th>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>
<td>male</td>
<td>22.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>A/5 21171</td>
<td>7.2500</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
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<th>1</th>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>38.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>PC 17599</td>
<td>71.2833</td>
<td>C85</td>
<td>C</td>
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<th>2</th>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>26.0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>
<td>7.9250</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
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<th>3</th>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>
<td>female</td>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>113803</td>
<td>53.1000</td>
<td>C123</td>
<td>S</td>
</tr>
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<th>4</th>
<td>5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>
<td>male</td>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>373450</td>
<td>8.0500</td>
<td>NaN</td>
<td>S</td>
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<p>The very same sample of the RMS Titanic data now shows the <strong>Survived</strong> feature removed from the DataFrame. Note that <code>data</code> (the passenger data) and <code>outcomes</code> (the outcomes of survival) are now <em>paired</em>. That means for any passenger <code>data.loc[i]</code>, they have the survival outcome <code>outcome[i]</code>.</p>
<p>To measure the performance of our predictions, we need a metric to score our predictions against the true outcomes of survival. Since we are interested in how <em>accurate</em> our predictions are, we will calculate the proportion of passengers where our prediction of their survival is correct. Run the code cell below to create our <code>accuracy_score</code> function and test a prediction on the first five passengers.</p>
<p><strong>Think:</strong> <em>Out of the first five passengers, if we predict that all of them survived, what would you expect the accuracy of our predictions to be?</em></p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">accuracy_score</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">truth</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">pred</span><span class="p">):</span>
<span class="sd">""" Returns accuracy score for input truth and predictions. """</span>
<span class="c1"># Ensure that the number of predictions matches number of outcomes</span>
<span class="k">if</span> <span class="nb">len</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">truth</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="o">==</span> <span class="nb">len</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">pred</span><span class="p">):</span>
<span class="c1"># Calculate and return the accuracy as a percent</span>
<span class="k">return</span> <span class="s2">"Predictions have an accuracy of {:.2f}%."</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">format</span><span class="p">((</span><span class="n">truth</span> <span class="o">==</span> <span class="n">pred</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">mean</span><span class="p">()</span><span class="o">*</span><span class="mi">100</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="k">else</span><span class="p">:</span>
<span class="k">return</span> <span class="s2">"Number of predictions does not match number of outcomes!"</span>
<span class="c1"># Test the 'accuracy_score' function</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">Series</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">np</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">ones</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="mi">5</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">dtype</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="nb">int</span><span class="p">))</span>
<span class="k">print</span> <span class="n">accuracy_score</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">outcomes</span><span class="p">[:</span><span class="mi">5</span><span class="p">],</span> <span class="n">predictions</span><span class="p">)</span>
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<pre>Predictions have an accuracy of 60.00%.
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<blockquote><p><strong>Tip:</strong> If you save an iPython Notebook, the output from running code blocks will also be saved. However, the state of your workspace will be reset once a new session is started. Make sure that you run all of the code blocks from your previous session to reestablish variables and functions before picking up where you last left off.</p>
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<h1 id="Making-Predictions">Making Predictions<a class="anchor-link" href="#Making-Predictions">¶</a></h1><p>If we were asked to make a prediction about any passenger aboard the RMS Titanic whom we knew nothing about, then the best prediction we could make would be that they did not survive. This is because we can assume that a majority of the passengers (more than 50%) did not survive the ship sinking.<br>
The <code>predictions_0</code> function below will always predict that a passenger did not survive.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">predictions_0</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">):</span>
<span class="sd">""" Model with no features. Always predicts a passenger did not survive. """</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="p">[]</span>
<span class="k">for</span> <span class="n">_</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">passenger</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="n">data</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">iterrows</span><span class="p">():</span>
<span class="c1"># Predict the survival of 'passenger'</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">append</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Return our predictions</span>
<span class="k">return</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">Series</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">predictions</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Make the predictions</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">predictions_0</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">)</span>
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<h3 id="Question-1">Question 1<a class="anchor-link" href="#Question-1">¶</a></h3><p><em>Using the RMS Titanic data, how accurate would a prediction be that none of the passengers survived?</em><br>
<strong>Hint:</strong> Run the code cell below to see the accuracy of this prediction.</p>
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<pre>Predictions have an accuracy of 61.62%.
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<p><strong>Answer:</strong> 61.62%</p>
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<p>Let's take a look at whether the feature <strong>Sex</strong> has any indication of survival rates among passengers using the <code>survival_stats</code> function. This function is defined in the <code>titanic_visualizations.py</code> Python script included with this project. The first two parameters passed to the function are the RMS Titanic data and passenger survival outcomes, respectively. The third parameter indicates which feature we want to plot survival statistics across.<br>
Run the code cell below to plot the survival outcomes of passengers based on their sex.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="n">survival_stats</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">outcomes</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="s1">'Sex'</span><span class="p">)</span>
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<p>Examining the survival statistics, a large majority of males did not survive the ship sinking. However, a majority of females <em>did</em> survive the ship sinking. Let's build on our previous prediction: If a passenger was female, then we will predict that they survived. Otherwise, we will predict the passenger did not survive.<br>
Fill in the missing code below so that the function will make this prediction.<br>
<strong>Hint:</strong> You can access the values of each feature for a passenger like a dictionary. For example, <code>passenger['Sex']</code> is the sex of the passenger.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">predictions_1</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">):</span>
<span class="sd">""" Model with one feature: </span>
<span class="sd"> - Predict a passenger survived if they are female. """</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="p">[]</span>
<span class="k">for</span> <span class="n">_</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">passenger</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="n">data</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">iterrows</span><span class="p">():</span>
<span class="c1"># Remove the 'pass' statement below </span>
<span class="c1"># and write your prediction conditions here</span>
<span class="c1">#if passenger['Sex'] is 'female':</span>
<span class="k">if</span> <span class="n">passenger</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="s1">'Sex'</span><span class="p">]</span> <span class="o">==</span> <span class="s1">'female'</span><span class="p">:</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">append</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="mi">1</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="k">else</span><span class="p">:</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">append</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Return our predictions</span>
<span class="k">return</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">Series</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">predictions</span><span class="p">)</span>
<span class="c1"># Make the predictions</span>
<span class="n">predictions</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">predictions_1</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">)</span>
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<h3 id="Question-2">Question 2<a class="anchor-link" href="#Question-2">¶</a></h3><p><em>How accurate would a prediction be that all female passengers survived and the remaining passengers did not survive?</em><br>
<strong>Hint:</strong> Run the code cell below to see the accuracy of this prediction.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="k">print</span> <span class="n">accuracy_score</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">outcomes</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">predictions</span><span class="p">)</span>
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<pre>Predictions have an accuracy of 78.68%.
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<p><strong>Answer</strong>: 61.62</p>
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<p>Using just the <strong>Sex</strong> feature for each passenger, we are able to increase the accuracy of our predictions by a significant margin. Now, let's consider using an additional feature to see if we can further improve our predictions. For example, consider all of the male passengers aboard the RMS Titanic: Can we find a subset of those passengers that had a higher rate of survival? Let's start by looking at the <strong>Age</strong> of each male, by again using the <code>survival_stats</code> function. This time, we'll use a fourth parameter to filter out the data so that only passengers with the <strong>Sex</strong> 'male' will be included.<br>
Run the code cell below to plot the survival outcomes of male passengers based on their age.</p>
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<div class=" highlight hl-ipython2"><pre><span></span><span class="n">survival_stats</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">data</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">outcomes</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="s1">'Age'</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="p">[</span><span class="s2">"Sex == 'male'"</span><span class="p">])</span>
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